Policy

As Belarus Descends into Turmoil, the West Should Bolster its Readiness

As Belarus Descends into Turmoil, the West Should Bolster its Readiness

By Matthew Thomas in Policy

September 30, 2020

Belarus seldom registers in the international press during normal times, but while years like 2020 are not so unprecedented, this certainly is not a normal year. Since President Aleksandr Lukashenko was declared the winner of the fraudulent presidential elections on August 9, the country has spiraled into civil unrest and authoritarian repression, and the headlines keep coming like a stampede. While no one was surprised by the announced outcome of the election, most analysts would not have predicted that Belarus would be launched headlong into a persistent crisis.

The Future of Belarus?

The Future of Belarus?

By Andreis Purim in Policy

August 12, 2020

The Belarusian elections occurred last Sunday, August 9th, and pitted incumbent president Alexander Lukashenko against political outsider Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. For what was supposed to be another easy campaign in Lukashenko’s winning streak, the protests leading up, and following the elections have sparked internal turmoil in Belarus. The Belarusian government now faces its biggest crisis in 26 years, as protests and police violence sweep the capital and the opposition increases their demands.

Moving the Front Lines: Could Recent Moves in Europe Signal an Adjustment of U.S. Focus Eastward?

Moving the Front Lines: Could Recent Moves in Europe Signal an Adjustment of U.S. Focus Eastward?

By Matthew Thomas in Policy

July 31, 2020

In June the Trump administration announced its decision to pull 9,500 U.S. troops from Germany. The move was lambasted by those on the left and right alike, and indeed, at face value, it appeared counterintuitive. Any return to the Obama and Bush-era troop drawdown in Europe would be foolish facing a revisionist Russia. But if there is anything the keen and impartial observer should know by now about this administration, it is that it keeps its cards close to the chest, absorbing the criticism that inevitably comes and only revealing its end game down the line.

The Three Seas Initiative

The Three Seas Initiative

By Matthew Thomas in Policy

March 16, 2020

Last month, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the United States would commit up to $1 Billion in support for the Three Seas Initiative. In so doing, Congress and the administration are providing much needed assistance toward developing the economic and security infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe. This initiative, launched in 2015 by the Polish and Croatian presidents, aims to make Central Europe a “backbone of European resilience,” in the words of Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović.

Belarus: An Overlooked Key to Baltic Security

Belarus: An Overlooked Key to Baltic Security

By Matthew Thomas in Policy

November 24, 2019

Winston Churchill once famously quipped that “Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”. A keen observer will notice that Alyaksandar Lukashenka’s Belarus is much the same. All too often, Western analysts have made the mistake of grossly oversimplifying Belarus’ relationship with Russia, as well as its domestic political affairs and broader foreign policy. This has led the West to neglect relations with Minsk, where despite a less than ideal government, great strategic opportunity lies, and where there is also significant strategic risk.

Why Stopping Nord Stream 2 Matters for the Baltics

Why Stopping Nord Stream 2 Matters for the Baltics

By Matthew Thomas in Policy

October 10, 2019

Nord Stream 2 is a Russian gas pipeline project running mostly parallel to the current Nord Stream pipeline from Vyborg to Greifswald, Germany. This second line would allow for additional gas flows directly from Russia to Western Europe up to a potential 110 billion cubic meters annually. At face value, this expansion is an economic opportunity that makes sense for Germany and other potential Western European customers. In a perfect world, it would be just that.

Is Baltic Security Important for the U.S., NATO, and Europe? Absolutely!

Is Baltic Security Important for the U.S., NATO, and Europe? Absolutely!

By Matthew Thomas in Policy

August 25, 2019

The three Baltic States are key members of the NATO defensive alliance. Since regaining independence after the illegal Soviet occupation, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have all become deeply integrated into Western institutions, such as NATO and the EU. These small countries, understanding the potential peril of reoccupation by a resurgent Russia after the annexation of Crimea, have been extremely vocal in sounding the alarm that Russia remains a security threat. They understand that the West must get serious about security lest its more vulnerable members once more get trampled.

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