Matthew Thomas

A Contrarian View of Joe Biden and NATO

A Contrarian View of Joe Biden and NATO

By Matthew Thomas in Policy

February 27, 2021

In the world of analysis, contrarian viewpoints are equally disliked and necessary. They help shape a more robust understanding of the situation at hand and can prepare countries for the otherwise unexpected. As much of Europe celebrates Joe Biden taking the helm in the United States after the much despised Trump administration, it is worthwhile to take a step back and question whether or not that enthusiasm is really merited. As such, this paper puts forth an unabashedly contrarian viewpoint for the sake of an enriched understanding of the world as it may be going forward, lest the Baltics be caught off guard in the broader optimism of their European counterparts.

U.S.-Poland Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement and Why It Matters

U.S.-Poland Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement and Why It Matters

By Matthew Thomas in Policy

December 23, 2020

On November 9, 2020, 31 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Polish President Andrzej Duda signed the Polish Senate’s ratification bill of the U.S.-Polish Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). This agreement contains a number of provisions that will facilitate greater defense cooperation between the United States and Poland and improve deterrence and battle readiness for NATO along the alliance’s Eastern Flank. For the Baltics, this ratification is welcome news, as it not only improves the regional deterrent posture, but also a number of crucial conditions in Poland to enable more rapid and effective defense in the event of Russian aggression on their territory.

Much Ado About Something: 2% Defense Expenditures and What Really Matters

Much Ado About Something: 2% Defense Expenditures and What Really Matters

By Matthew Thomas in Policy

October 30, 2020

In 2014, NATO member states agreed to target defense expenditures of two percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2024. After this commitment, and following Russian aggression in Ukraine, NATO turned the corner on its declining defense expenditures. Facing a new challenge in a revisionist Russia, many allies to the east felt a new sense of urgency about funding their defense, aiming to build a credible deterrent against aggression on their own territory.

As Belarus Descends into Turmoil, the West Should Bolster its Readiness

As Belarus Descends into Turmoil, the West Should Bolster its Readiness

By Matthew Thomas in Policy

September 30, 2020

Belarus seldom registers in the international press during normal times, but while years like 2020 are not so unprecedented, this certainly is not a normal year. Since President Aleksandr Lukashenko was declared the winner of the fraudulent presidential elections on August 9, the country has spiraled into civil unrest and authoritarian repression, and the headlines keep coming like a stampede. While no one was surprised by the announced outcome of the election, most analysts would not have predicted that Belarus would be launched headlong into a persistent crisis.

Trust, but Deter: How to Ensure Security Despite Russian Treaty Violations

Trust, but Deter: How to Ensure Security Despite Russian Treaty Violations

By Matthew Thomas in Security

August 27, 2020

In August, Latvia marked the 100th anniversary of the Latvian-Soviet Peace Treaty, otherwise known as the Treaty of Rīga, which ended Latvia’s War for Independence and marked the beginning of the interwar period for the new Latvian Republic. The treaty established Latvia’s sovereignty and Soviet Russia recognized Latvia’s independence as “inviolable” for all time. But the Soviet Union did not honor this treaty, nor its treaties with Estonia and Lithuania. Between these treaties and other, more modern treaties such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, we can see that Russia only abides by the treaties it signs for as long as it is convenient, then breaks them when it seems it can get away with doing so.

Moving the Front Lines: Could Recent Moves in Europe Signal an Adjustment of U.S. Focus Eastward?

Moving the Front Lines: Could Recent Moves in Europe Signal an Adjustment of U.S. Focus Eastward?

By Matthew Thomas in Policy

July 31, 2020

In June the Trump administration announced its decision to pull 9,500 U.S. troops from Germany. The move was lambasted by those on the left and right alike, and indeed, at face value, it appeared counterintuitive. Any return to the Obama and Bush-era troop drawdown in Europe would be foolish facing a revisionist Russia. But if there is anything the keen and impartial observer should know by now about this administration, it is that it keeps its cards close to the chest, absorbing the criticism that inevitably comes and only revealing its end game down the line.

Military Exercises in Kaliningrad Highlight Maritime Threats

Military Exercises in Kaliningrad Highlight Maritime Threats

By Matthew Thomas in Security

May 26, 2020

For eight or nine days beginning on April 20th, around the same time that NATO and Estonian forces were holding the Spring Storm Exercises, Russia held exercises of its own in the Kaliningrad Oblast’. Though not as grandiose in scale as a May 3rd article in Izvestia would suggest, the exercises do demonstrate that Russia is working to practice its maritime capabilities. The main events of the exercises centered around what may have been two amphibious landing drills and also featured anti-aircraft and anti-submarine drills, simulated naval missile attacks, simulated aerial attacks on naval vessels, and mine-laying and mine-clearing exercises.

Spring Storm Exercises Demonstrate Ongoing Commitment to Deterrence, Readiness

Spring Storm Exercises Demonstrate Ongoing Commitment to Deterrence, Readiness

By Matthew Thomas in Security

May 12, 2020

Each year, Estonia hosts Spring Storm (Kevadtorm), bringing together forces from all across NATO to conduct field and live-fire exercises. Though smaller in scale and participation due to the coronavirus pandemic, this year’s exercises concluded successfully last week. Spring Storm demonstrates Estonia and its allies’ commitment to ensuring readiness in case of attack, contributing to the credibility of NATO’s deterrence posture on the Eastern Flank. Military exercises are crucial for training and readiness purposes, as new conscripts/recruits and reservists have an opportunity to train alongside active duty personnel.

Javelin Deliveries and the Prospects of Tank Warfare in the Baltics

Javelin Deliveries and the Prospects of Tank Warfare in the Baltics

By Matthew Thomas in Security

April 22, 2020

At the beginning of this month, the U.S. delivered 128 javelin anti-tank missiles to Estonia, part of ongoing cooperation between the two countries. This will provide another moderate boost to the credibility of Estonia’s deterrent posture. These kinds of smaller procurements are an important part of the broader effort to build up a credible defense in case of Russian aggression and to signal that the risk outweighs the reward for attacking the Baltic States.

The Three Seas Initiative

The Three Seas Initiative

By Matthew Thomas in Policy

March 16, 2020

Last month, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the United States would commit up to $1 Billion in support for the Three Seas Initiative. In so doing, Congress and the administration are providing much needed assistance toward developing the economic and security infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe. This initiative, launched in 2015 by the Polish and Croatian presidents, aims to make Central Europe a “backbone of European resilience,” in the words of Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović.

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